AutoARIMAModel¶

class AutoARIMAModel(**kwargs)[source]¶

Bases: etna.models.mixins.PerSegmentModelMixin, etna.models.mixins.PredictionIntervalContextIgnorantModelMixin, etna.models.base.PredictionIntervalContextIgnorantAbstractModel

Class for holding auto arima model.

Method predict can use true target values only on train data on future data autoregression forecasting will be made even if targets are known.

Notes

We use pmdarima.arima.arima.ARIMA.

This model supports in-sample and out-of-sample prediction decomposition. Prediction components for AutoARIMA model are: exogenous and ARIMA components. Decomposition is obtained directly from fitted model parameters.

Init auto ARIMA model with given params.

Parameters: **kwargs – Training parameters for auto_arima from pmdarima package.
Inherited-members

Methods

`fit`(ts)	Fit model.
`forecast`(ts[, prediction_interval, ...])	Make predictions.
`get_model`()	Get internal models that are used inside etna class.
`load`(path)	Load an object.
`params_to_tune`()	Get grid for tuning hyperparameters.
`predict`(ts[, prediction_interval, ...])	Make predictions with using true values as autoregression context if possible (teacher forcing).
`save`(path)	Save the object.
`set_params`(**params)	Return new object instance with modified parameters.
`to_dict`()	Collect all information about etna object in dict.

Attributes

context_size

Context size of the model.

fit(ts: etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset) → etna.models.mixins.PerSegmentModelMixin¶

Fit model.

Parameters: ts (etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset) – Dataset with features
Returns: Model after fit
Return type: etna.models.mixins.PerSegmentModelMixin

forecast(ts: etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset, prediction_interval: bool = False, quantiles: Sequence[float] = (0.025, 0.975), return_components: bool = False) → etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset¶

Make predictions.

Parameters

ts (etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset) – Dataset with features
prediction_interval (bool) – If True returns prediction interval for forecast
quantiles (Sequence[float]) – Levels of prediction distribution. By default 2.5% and 97.5% are taken to form a 95% prediction interval
return_components (bool) – If True additionally returns forecast components

Returns

Dataset with predictions

Return type

etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset

get_model() → Dict[str, Any]¶

Get internal models that are used inside etna class.

Internal model is a model that is used inside etna to forecast segments, e.g. catboost.CatBoostRegressor or sklearn.linear_model.Ridge.

Returns: dictionary where key is segment and value is internal model
Return type: Dict[str, Any]

classmethod load(path: pathlib.Path) → typing_extensions.Self¶

Load an object.

Warning

This method uses dill module which is not secure. It is possible to construct malicious data which will execute arbitrary code during loading. Never load data that could have come from an untrusted source, or that could have been tampered with.

Parameters: path (pathlib.Path) – Path to load object from.
Returns: Loaded object.
Return type: typing_extensions.Self

params_to_tune() → Dict[str, etna.distributions.distributions.BaseDistribution]¶

Get grid for tuning hyperparameters.

This is default implementation with empty grid.

Returns: Empty grid.
Return type: Dict[str, etna.distributions.distributions.BaseDistribution]

predict(ts: etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset, prediction_interval: bool = False, quantiles: Sequence[float] = (0.025, 0.975), return_components: bool = False) → etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset¶

Make predictions with using true values as autoregression context if possible (teacher forcing).

Parameters

ts (etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset) – Dataset with features
prediction_interval (bool) – If True returns prediction interval for forecast
quantiles (Sequence[float]) – Levels of prediction distribution. By default 2.5% and 97.5% are taken to form a 95% prediction interval
return_components (bool) – If True additionally returns prediction components

Returns

Dataset with predictions

Return type

etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset

save(path: pathlib.Path)¶

Save the object.

Parameters: path (pathlib.Path) – Path to save object to.

set_params(**params: dict) → etna.core.mixins.TMixin¶

Return new object instance with modified parameters.

Method also allows to change parameters of nested objects within the current object. For example, it is possible to change parameters of a model in a Pipeline.

Nested parameters are expected to be in a <component_1>.<...>.<parameter> form, where components are separated by a dot.

Parameters

**params – Estimator parameters
self (etna.core.mixins.TMixin) –
params (dict) –

Returns

New instance with changed parameters

Return type

etna.core.mixins.TMixin

Examples

>>> from etna.pipeline import Pipeline
>>> from etna.models import NaiveModel
>>> from etna.transforms import AddConstTransform
>>> model = model=NaiveModel(lag=1)
>>> transforms = [AddConstTransform(in_column="target", value=1)]
>>> pipeline = Pipeline(model, transforms=transforms, horizon=3)
>>> pipeline.set_params(**{"model.lag": 3, "transforms.0.value": 2})
Pipeline(model = NaiveModel(lag = 3, ), transforms = [AddConstTransform(in_column = 'target', value = 2, inplace = True, out_column = None, )], horizon = 3, )

to_dict()¶: Collect all information about etna object in dict.

property context_size: int¶

Context size of the model. Determines how many history points do we ask to pass to the model.

Zero for this model.