prophet¶
Classes

Class for holding Prophet model. 

Class for holding Prophet model. 
 class ProphetModel(growth: str = 'linear', changepoints: Optional[List[datetime.datetime]] = None, n_changepoints: int = 25, changepoint_range: float = 0.8, yearly_seasonality: Union[str, bool] = 'auto', weekly_seasonality: Union[str, bool] = 'auto', daily_seasonality: Union[str, bool] = 'auto', holidays: Optional[pandas.core.frame.DataFrame] = None, seasonality_mode: str = 'additive', seasonality_prior_scale: float = 10.0, holidays_prior_scale: float = 10.0, changepoint_prior_scale: float = 0.05, mcmc_samples: int = 0, interval_width: float = 0.8, uncertainty_samples: Union[int, bool] = 1000, stan_backend: Optional[str] = None, additional_seasonality_params: Iterable[Dict[str, Union[str, float, int]]] = ())[source]¶
Class for holding Prophet model.
Notes
Original Prophet can use features ‘cap’ and ‘floor’, they should be added to the known_future list on dataset initialization.
This model supports insample and outofsample forecast decomposition. The number of components in the decomposition depends on model parameters. Main components are: trend, seasonality, holiday and exogenous effects. Seasonal components will be decomposed down to individual periods if fitted. Holiday and exogenous will be present in decomposition if fitted.Corresponding components are obtained directly from the model.
Examples
>>> from etna.datasets import generate_periodic_df >>> from etna.datasets import TSDataset >>> from etna.models import ProphetModel >>> classic_df = generate_periodic_df( ... periods=100, ... start_time="20200101", ... n_segments=4, ... period=7, ... sigma=3 ... ) >>> df = TSDataset.to_dataset(df=classic_df) >>> ts = TSDataset(df, freq="D") >>> future = ts.make_future(7) >>> model = ProphetModel(growth="flat") >>> model.fit(ts=ts) ProphetModel(growth = 'flat', changepoints = None, n_changepoints = 25, changepoint_range = 0.8, yearly_seasonality = 'auto', weekly_seasonality = 'auto', daily_seasonality = 'auto', holidays = None, seasonality_mode = 'additive', seasonality_prior_scale = 10.0, holidays_prior_scale = 10.0, changepoint_prior_scale = 0.05, mcmc_samples = 0, interval_width = 0.8, uncertainty_samples = 1000, stan_backend = None, additional_seasonality_params = (), ) >>> forecast = model.forecast(future) >>> forecast segment segment_0 segment_1 segment_2 segment_3 feature target target target target timestamp 20200410 9.00 9.00 4.00 6.00 20200411 5.00 2.00 7.00 9.00 20200412 0.00 4.00 7.00 9.00 20200413 0.00 5.00 9.00 7.00 20200414 1.00 2.00 1.00 6.00 20200415 5.00 7.00 4.00 7.00 20200416 8.00 6.00 2.00 0.00
Create instance of Prophet model.
 Parameters
growth (str) – Options are ‘linear’ and ‘logistic’. This likely will not be tuned; if there is a known saturating point and growth towards that point it will be included and the logistic trend will be used, otherwise it will be linear.
changepoints (Optional[List[datetime.datetime]]) – List of dates at which to include potential changepoints. If not specified, potential changepoints are selected automatically.
n_changepoints (int) – Number of potential changepoints to include. Not used if input
changepoints
is supplied. Ifchangepoints
is not supplied, thenn_changepoints
potential changepoints are selected uniformly from the firstchangepoint_range
proportion of the history.changepoint_range (float) – Proportion of history in which trend changepoints will be estimated. Defaults to 0.8 for the first 80%. Not used if
changepoints
is specified.yearly_seasonality (Union[str, bool]) – By default (‘auto’) this will turn yearly seasonality on if there is a year of data, and off otherwise. Options are [‘auto’, True, False]. If there is more than a year of data, rather than trying to turn this off during HPO, it will likely be more effective to leave it on and turn down seasonal effects by tuning
seasonality_prior_scale
.weekly_seasonality (Union[str, bool]) – Same as for
yearly_seasonality
.daily_seasonality (Union[str, bool]) – Same as for
yearly_seasonality
.holidays (Optional[pandas.core.frame.DataFrame]) –
pd.DataFrame
with columns holiday (string) and ds (date type) and optionally columns lower_window and upper_window which specify a range of days around the date to be included as holidays.lower_window=2
will include 2 days prior to the date as holidays. Also optionally can have a columnprior_scale
specifying the prior scale for that holiday.seasonality_mode (str) – ‘additive’ (default) or ‘multiplicative’.
seasonality_prior_scale (float) – Parameter modulating the strength of the seasonality model. Larger values allow the model to fit larger seasonal fluctuations, smaller values dampen the seasonality. Can be specified for individual seasonalities using
add_seasonality
.holidays_prior_scale (float) – Parameter modulating the strength of the holiday components model, unless overridden in the holidays input.
changepoint_prior_scale (float) – Parameter modulating the flexibility of the automatic changepoint selection. Large values will allow many changepoints, small values will allow few changepoints.
mcmc_samples (int) – Integer, if greater than 0, will do full Bayesian inference with the specified number of MCMC samples. If 0, will do MAP estimation.
interval_width (float) – Float, width of the uncertainty intervals provided for the forecast. If
mcmc_samples=0
, this will be only the uncertainty in the trend using the MAP estimate of the extrapolated generative model. Ifmcmc.samples>0
, this will be integrated over all model parameters, which will include uncertainty in seasonality.uncertainty_samples (Union[int, bool]) – Number of simulated draws used to estimate uncertainty intervals. Settings this value to 0 or False will disable uncertainty estimation and speed up the calculation.
stan_backend (Optional[str]) – as defined in StanBackendEnum default: None  will try to iterate over all available backends and find the working one
additional_seasonality_params (Iterable[Dict[str, Union[int, float, str]]]) – parameters that describe additional (not ‘daily’, ‘weekly’, ‘yearly’) seasonality that should be added to model; dict with required keys ‘name’, ‘period’, ‘fourier_order’ and optional ones ‘prior_scale’, ‘mode’, ‘condition_name’ will be used for
prophet.Prophet.add_seasonality()
method call.
 fit(ts: etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset) etna.models.mixins.PerSegmentModelMixin ¶
Fit model.
 Parameters
ts (etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset) – Dataset with features
 Returns
Model after fit
 Return type
 forecast(ts: etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset, prediction_interval: bool = False, quantiles: Sequence[float] = (0.025, 0.975), return_components: bool = False) etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset ¶
Make predictions.
 Parameters
ts (etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset) – Dataset with features
prediction_interval (bool) – If True returns prediction interval for forecast
quantiles (Sequence[float]) – Levels of prediction distribution. By default 2.5% and 97.5% are taken to form a 95% prediction interval
return_components (bool) – If True additionally returns forecast components
 Returns
Dataset with predictions
 Return type
 get_model() Dict[str, Any] ¶
Get internal models that are used inside etna class.
Internal model is a model that is used inside etna to forecast segments, e.g.
catboost.CatBoostRegressor
orsklearn.linear_model.Ridge
. Returns
dictionary where key is segment and value is internal model
 Return type
Dict[str, Any]
 classmethod load(path: pathlib.Path) typing_extensions.Self ¶
Load an object.
Warning
This method uses
dill
module which is not secure. It is possible to construct malicious data which will execute arbitrary code during loading. Never load data that could have come from an untrusted source, or that could have been tampered with. Parameters
path (pathlib.Path) – Path to load object from.
 Returns
Loaded object.
 Return type
typing_extensions.Self
 params_to_tune() Dict[str, etna.distributions.distributions.BaseDistribution] [source]¶
Get default grid for tuning hyperparameters.
This grid tunes parameters:
seasonality_mode
,seasonality_prior_scale
,changepoint_prior_scale
,changepoint_range
,holidays_prior_scale
. Other parameters are expected to be set by the user. Returns
Grid to tune.
 Return type
Dict[str, etna.distributions.distributions.BaseDistribution]
 predict(ts: etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset, prediction_interval: bool = False, quantiles: Sequence[float] = (0.025, 0.975), return_components: bool = False) etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset ¶
Make predictions with using true values as autoregression context if possible (teacher forcing).
 Parameters
ts (etna.datasets.tsdataset.TSDataset) – Dataset with features
prediction_interval (bool) – If True returns prediction interval for forecast
quantiles (Sequence[float]) – Levels of prediction distribution. By default 2.5% and 97.5% are taken to form a 95% prediction interval
return_components (bool) – If True additionally returns prediction components
 Returns
Dataset with predictions
 Return type
 save(path: pathlib.Path)¶
Save the object.
 Parameters
path (pathlib.Path) – Path to save object to.
 set_params(**params: dict) etna.core.mixins.TMixin ¶
Return new object instance with modified parameters.
Method also allows to change parameters of nested objects within the current object. For example, it is possible to change parameters of a
model
in aPipeline
.Nested parameters are expected to be in a
<component_1>.<...>.<parameter>
form, where components are separated by a dot. Parameters
**params – Estimator parameters
self (etna.core.mixins.TMixin) –
params (dict) –
 Returns
New instance with changed parameters
 Return type
etna.core.mixins.TMixin
Examples
>>> from etna.pipeline import Pipeline >>> from etna.models import NaiveModel >>> from etna.transforms import AddConstTransform >>> model = model=NaiveModel(lag=1) >>> transforms = [AddConstTransform(in_column="target", value=1)] >>> pipeline = Pipeline(model, transforms=transforms, horizon=3) >>> pipeline.set_params(**{"model.lag": 3, "transforms.0.value": 2}) Pipeline(model = NaiveModel(lag = 3, ), transforms = [AddConstTransform(in_column = 'target', value = 2, inplace = True, out_column = None, )], horizon = 3, )
 to_dict()¶
Collect all information about etna object in dict.
 property context_size: int¶
Context size of the model. Determines how many history points do we ask to pass to the model.
Zero for this model.